Is Marcus Semien a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Marcus Semien's rest-of-season outlook?

86.8 mph exit velo and 33% hard-hit — soft contact, no gap to blame.

547 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Marcus Semien

NYM·2B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.300 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Semien is a sell — the bat is below league and sinking.

His expected wOBA sits at .300, below the league average of .315, and the sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no bad-luck story underneath it. His actual wOBA of .276 runs even lower, which means his contact is producing exactly what the results show. The contact quality backs it up: 86.8 mph average exit velocity against a 89.0 league average, a 33.3% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 5.8% barrels against 8.0%, all on 396 batted balls, well past the threshold to trust them. The plate discipline is fine — a 19.0% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate — but discipline does not carry a bat this light. His expected wOBA has been stepping down, not stabilizing. This is the level. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG ROS line is a drop, not a hold — fringe waiver filler at best.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.8%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.300 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

396 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —

396 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −0.8% ▼

396 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.300

lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —

547 / 160 PA

wOBA.276

lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —

547 / 200 PA

Strikeout %19.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

547 / 60 PA

Walk %8.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

547 / 120 PA

BABIP.239

lg avg .295 ▼−.056vs his norm −.027 ▼BABIP is below his ~.266 norm — expect it to rise.

396 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

547 / 50 PA

Chase %27.3%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

547 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.8%→6.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.8% (signal) lifted to career ~6.6% → projected 6.1%.

BABIP 0.239→0.257 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.239 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.240) → 0.257.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 60 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons