Rest of Season Projection
AdamCategoryMarcus
2HR →9
39R ←31
16RBI →31
0SB →7
.164AVG →.249
Current Season
AdamCategoryMarcus
1HR →6
15R →23
6RBI →23
0SB →5
.227AVG.228
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adam Frazier
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.308 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.237 is 0.049 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Marcus Semien
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.247 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Adam Frazier: 2 HR / 40 R. Marcus Semien: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).