93 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Adam Frazier
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.308 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.237 is 0.047 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .162HR 1R 24RBI 10SB 0
Frazier is a sell-high — BABIP is hiding a weak bat.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.308 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.237 is 0.047 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.5 mphvs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %16.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−23.6%vs his norm —
55 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm −0.8% ▼Barrel % is below his ~2.6% norm — expect it to rise.
55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.237
lg avg .315 ▼−.078vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
93 / 160 PA
wOBA.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
93 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
93 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 120 PA
BABIP.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm +.021 ▲BABIP is above his ~.286 norm — expect it to fall.
55 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
93 / 50 PA
Chase %35.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
93 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.8%→2.5%noise1 HR — Barrel% 1.8% (noise) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.5%.
BABIP 0.308→0.241 regressednoise.162 AVG — BABIP 0.308 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.236 (xBA 0.175) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup24 R — his run rate over ~138 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~138 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 39 G) over ~138 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.