86 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Adam Frazier
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Frazier is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating his line.
Frazier's actual wOBA of .302 looks better than his underlying skill because his BABIP is .333, nearly 40 points above league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has only 51 — that gap is luck. His expected wOBA of .247 is .055 lower than his actual, and with just 86 plate appearances, it's still settling. The stable metrics tell the real story: his exit velocity is 83.8 mph (5.2 below league), hard-hit rate is 17.6% (22.4 below league), and his strikeout rate is 30.2%, well above league and trending up. The contact quality is poor and the K rate caps his floor. When the BABIP normalizes, the line will drop. Sell high while the market still sees the surface.
Sell High
med0.69
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.247 is 0.055 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.2 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL51 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %17.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−22.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL51 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.0%too early to trust
NOISE51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.247
lg avg .315 ▼−.068too early to trust
NOISE86 / 160 PA
wOBA.302
lg avg .315 ▼−.013too early to trust
NOISE86 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL86 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%too early to trust
NOISE86 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038too early to trust
NOISE51 / 800 BIP