147 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Adam Frazier
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.265); BABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Frazier is a hold — the profile is thin, the line is luck-fed
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .227 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.1%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~2.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.265)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %19.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−20.9%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 160 PA
wOBA.293
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 PA
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
147 / 120 PA
BABIP.337
lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm +.051 ▲BABIP is above his ~.286 norm — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
Chase %36.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
147 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.1%→2.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.1% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 2.5%.
BABIP 0.337→0.310 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.337 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.223) → 0.310.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 39 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.