569 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
TJ Rumfield
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.335 is 0.040 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .261R 4RBI 5SB 0
Rumfield is a sell-high — his line is running on BABIP luck.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.6 mphvs his norm —
415 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.0%vs his norm —
415 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
415 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —
569 / 160 PA
wOBA.375
lg avg .315 ▲+.060vs his norm —
569 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
569 / 60 PA
Walk %11.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
569 / 120 PA
BABIP.330
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
415 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
569 / 50 PA
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
569 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→5.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.7%.
BABIP 0.330→0.304 regressednoise.261 AVG — BABIP 0.330 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.276 (xBA 0.260) → 0.304.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 58 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.