631 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
TJ Rumfield
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.333 is 0.040 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.331 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rumfield is a sell-high — the BABIP is carrying the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.331 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.333 is 0.040 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.7 mphvs his norm —
463 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %27.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.1%vs his norm —
463 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
463 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
631 / 160 PA
wOBA.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —
631 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%vs his norm —
631 / 60 PA
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
631 / 120 PA
BABIP.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
463 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
631 / 50 PA
Chase %30.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
631 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.331→0.308 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.331 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.277 (xBA 0.261) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.