week 17
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL
Nick Lodolo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Sell stable xERA 6.08 +1.98 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47ERA 5.39WHIP 1.43W 2–5SV 0
Lodolo is a sell — unlucky? No, just below league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.9%—−7.8% ▼vs his ~25.7% career norm
- Walk %9.7%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~7.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.08 +1.98 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
193 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
193 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058vs his norm —
279 / 200 TBF
xERA6.08
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —
279 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
62.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −7.8% ▼
279 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
279 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
193 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
279 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
279 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1087 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→21.1%signal47 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.7% → projected 21.1% over ~50 remaining IP.
xERA 6.08signal5.39 ERA — xERA 6.08 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop47 K ROS, 5.39 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.