week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Nick Lodolo
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Lodolo is a sell-high — ERA is built on luck.
His ERA is 5.21, but it should be worse. The number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .250, 45 points below league average. BABIP-against needs about 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 80. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 6.60 — 1.39 runs higher — pointing straight at regression. He allows 13.8% barrels, well above the league 8.0%, and his strikeout rate is 18.3%, below league average. There is no elite-stuff story to lean on. The skill is below league; the ERA is a mirage. Limited data: this call rests on the gap between his BABIP-against and xERA. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.60 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.392
lg avg .315 ▲+.077too early to trust
NOISE120 / 200 TBF
xERA6.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.50too early to trust
NOISE120 / 200 TBF
ERA5.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.11too early to trust
NOISE27.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL120 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%too early to trust
NOISE120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE80 / 800 BIP