MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nick Lodolo
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Nick Lodolo

CIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.42 +2.32 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 10ERA 5.61WHIP 1.43W 1–1SV 0

Lodolo is a sell — the skill is below league and climbing the wrong way.

His expected ERA is 6.42, more than two runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The xERA has been climbing across the sample, so this is not a cold stretch — it is getting worse. His expected wOBA allowed is .380 against a league mark of .315, and that gap is earned: he gives up hard contact at 40.9% and barrels at 9.7%, both above league. He strikes out just 18.5% of batters while walking 9.4%, so he is not missing bats and he is handing out free passes. There is no suppressed BABIP-against to blame here, no bad-luck story waiting to turn. The stuff is what it is. Sell. 10 K and a 5.61 ERA is streaming-only production, so take the fade and let him be someone else's drag.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.5%—−7.2% ▼vs his ~25.7% career norm
  • Walk %9.4%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~7.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.42 +2.32 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.9%
believable since May 2540.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
279 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
279 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.380
.380*
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —
406 / 200 TBF
xERA6.42
6.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.32vs his norm —
406 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
5.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
89.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
norm18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −7.2% ▼
406 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
norm9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
406 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.315
.315*
lg avg .295 ▲+.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
279 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
406 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
29.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
406 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
1613 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→20.9%signal10 K — K% 18.5% (signal) lifted to career ~25.7% → projected 20.9% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 6.42signal5.61 ERA — xERA 6.42 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 5.61 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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