MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nick Lodolo
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Nick Lodolo

CIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.47 +2.37 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.64WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0

Lodolo is a sell — the contact he allows is the problem

His expected ERA is 6.47, more than two full runs above the league mark of 4.10, and the batters he has faced — 486 of them — are well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing on the page suggests bad luck is hiding better pitching. His expected wOBA allowed is .380 against a league average of .315, and the contact allowed is not a fluke of a small sample. The missing strikeouts explain most of it: he fans 17.1% of batters, five points under league, with a swinging-strike rate of 9.7% that lags the 11.0% league mark. The xERA has been climbing across the sample, not settling. He throws 93.8 mph, no better than the average arm, so there is no power to bail him out. The line is what it is. Sell. 0 K and a 5.64 ERA is waiver-tier, drop him; the fade has nothing left to hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.1%—−8.6% ▼vs his ~25.7% career norm
  • Walk %9.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~7.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.47 +2.37 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%
believable since May 2540.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
340 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
340 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.380
.380*
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —
486 / 200 TBF
xERA6.47
6.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.37vs his norm —
486 / 200 TBF
ERA4.97
4.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.87vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
108.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.1%
norm17.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm −8.6% ▼
486 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
norm9.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
486 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
.299*
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
340 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
486 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.6%
28.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
486 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
93.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
1899 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.1%→19.6%signal0 K — K% 17.1% (signal) lifted to career ~25.7% → projected 19.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.47signal5.64 ERA — xERA 6.47 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 28 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.64 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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