MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Calvin Faucher
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Calvin Faucher

MIA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 3.65WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0–0

Faucher is a buy — the strikeout stuff backs up a 3.65 expected ERA.

His expected ERA is 3.65, .45 of a run better than the 4.10 league average, and he has faced 294 batters — well past the 200 where that number becomes reliable. The skill under it is real: he strikes out 24.8% of hitters against a 22% league mark, and the contact he allows is soft where it matters, a 4.4% barrel rate allowed against 8% league. His fastball is averaging 96.4 mph, two and a half ticks above league, and it has been climbing across the sample while his expected ERA has been stepping down. The one blemish is a 12.6% walk rate, well above the 8% league average, and that is the thing that can turn a good expected ERA into a messy actual one. He has enough batters faced for the walk rate to mean something too. The stuff plays at the top of the rotation even if the command doesn't always follow. Buy. A 3.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 0 SV keeps him a deep-league asset — add now before the walks scare off the field.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.6%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~11.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.8%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~23.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
180 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
believable since Jun 34.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
180 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
3.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
68.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
norm24.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
294 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
norm12.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
294 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.4 mph
96.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
1166 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→24.3%signal0 K — K% 24.8% (signal) tempered to career ~23.6% → projected 24.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.6% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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