MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Calvin Faucher
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Calvin Faucher

MIA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 5ERA 3.65WHIP 1.40W 0–1SV 0–0

Faucher is a buy — the stuff is real and earned

His expected ERA is 3.65, .45 runs below the league average of 4.1, and that number has been stepping down across the sample. He has faced 259 batters, comfortably past the 200 where this becomes reliable, so the run prevention is earned. His contact suppression backs it: xwOBA allowed of .296 against a league .315, with a barrel rate of 5.1% against league 8.0%. The strikeout rate is 25.1%, above the 22.0% league mark, and he pairs it with 96.3 mph — nearly two and a half ticks above league — on a fastball that is still climbing. The one flag is a 12.7% walk rate, well above league, and that will keep his WHIP uncomfortable. Everything else says the skill is genuine. Buy. The 5 K / 3.65 ERA / 1.40 WHIP line is a deep-league stash, not a must-add, so acquire only where roster depth allows.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.7%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~11.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.1%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~23.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
158 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
believable since Jun 35.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
158 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
259 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
259 / 200 TBF
ERA3.73
3.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.1%
norm25.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
259 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
norm12.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
259 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
.295*
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
158 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
259 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
259 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1025 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.1%→24.5%signal5 K — K% 25.1% (signal) tempered to career ~23.6% → projected 24.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.7% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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