MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Manny Machado
602 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Manny Machado

SD·3B
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.338, +0.023 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 1AVG .210R 5RBI 6SB 0

Machado is a buy — the contact is real and trending up.

His expected wOBA is .338 — .023 above the league average of .315 — and he has 602 plate appearances behind it, so that number can be trusted. The contact quality backs it up: a 45.2% hard-hit rate and 9.9% barrel rate, both above league, on 403 batted balls, well past where those numbers become reliable. Both have been stepping up across the sample, which is the difference between holding a good line and building one. His actual wOBA is .319, twenty points below his expected mark, so nothing on the surface is being propped up by luck. He walks 11.6% of the time, well above league. The bat is doing the work and the results are still catching up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.9%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~11.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.338, +0.023 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.2%
45.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
403 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
602 / 160 PA
wOBA.319
.319*
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
602 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.3%
21.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
602 / 60 PA
Walk %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
602 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
norm.245*
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm −.048 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
403 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
602 / 50 PA
Chase %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
602 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.9%→10.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 9.9% (signal) lifted to career ~11.5% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.245→0.262 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.245 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.252) → 0.262.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 56 G) over ~43 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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