MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Manny Machado
677 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Manny Machado

SD·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.328); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Machado is a hold — average skill, nothing unstable underneath

His expected wOBA is .328 — .013 above the league average of .315 — and he has 677 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .310, so the surface is tracking the skill rather than being lifted or dragged by luck. The contact quality is real but modest: 90.1 mph off the bat and a 43.6% hard-hit rate, both slightly above league, with a 9.6% barrel rate on 456 batted balls. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample, which gives the line a bit of direction, but not enough to call it a breakout. He strikes out 21.3% of the time and walks 11.2%, a solid plate-appearance profile with no red flag. There is no edge in either direction here. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG projection is a drop-tier tax — fringe at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~11.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
456 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.6%
43.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
456 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.6%
norm9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
456 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
677 / 160 PA
wOBA.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
677 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.3%
21.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
677 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
677 / 120 PA
BABIP.231
norm.231*
lg avg .295 ▼−.064vs his norm −.062 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
456 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
677 / 50 PA
Chase %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
677 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.6%→10.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.6% (signal) lifted to career ~11.5% → projected 10.2%.
BABIP 0.231→0.247 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.231 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.267 (xBA 0.243) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 56 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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