399 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL
Nathan Lukes
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .255HR 0R 3RBI 4SB 0
Lukes is a sell — weak contact and no luck to fall back on.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~4.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
314 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.7%vs his norm —
314 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
314 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
399 / 160 PA
wOBA.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
399 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
399 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
399 / 120 PA
BABIP.299
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm +.018 ▲BABIP is above his ~.281 norm — expect it to fall.
314 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
399 / 50 PA
Chase %34.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
399 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.5%→3.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.5% (signal) lifted to career ~4.6% → projected 3.3%.
BABIP 0.299→0.299 regressednoise.255 AVG — BABIP 0.299 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.299 (xBA 0.255) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 26 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.