643 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Chase Meidroth
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.301 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.74 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Meidroth is a sell-high — the .339 wOBA is BABIP, not bat
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.6%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~1.6% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.301 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
434 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
434 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
434 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
643 / 160 PA
wOBA.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
643 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
643 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
643 / 120 PA
BABIP.339
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm +.048 ▲BABIP is above his ~.291 norm — expect it to fall.
434 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
643 / 50 PA
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
643 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.6%→3.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.6% (signal) tempered to career ~1.6% → projected 3.7%.
BABIP 0.339→0.314 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.339 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.239) → 0.314.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.