Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryErnie
5HR ←4
55R ←40
28RBI →35
2SB →3
.230AVG →.264
Current Season
ChaseCategoryErnie
5HR5
36R ←25
18RBI →22
1SB →2
.269AVG →.300
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Meidroth
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.342 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.297 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Ernie Clement
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.280 below league with no luck excuse
Chase Meidroth: 5 HR / 55 R. Ernie Clement: 4 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).