Rest of Season Projection
ErnieCategoryMarcus
4HR →9
34R ←31
30RBI →31
3SB →7
.262AVG ←.249
Current Season
ErnieCategoryMarcus
5HR →6
25R ←23
22RBI →23
2SB →5
.300AVG ←.228
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ernie Clement
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.317 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.276 is 0.067 below the surface — regression coming
Marcus Semien
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.247 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Ernie Clement: 4 HR / 35 R. Marcus Semien: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).