MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Rolison
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Ryan Rolison

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.03); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.91WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Rolison is a hold — league average, and steady across the board.

His expected ERA is 4.03 against a league average of 4.10, on 256 batters faced — past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact profile agrees: .309 expected wOBA allowed, 38.6% hard-hit allowed, 6.9% barrels, all within a hair of league. The one real wart is the walk rate at 10.9%, nearly three points above league, and that is stable too. What separates him from the pitchers worth moving is that nothing here is a luck story in either direction — the bat-missing is merely ordinary at 9.0% swinging strikes. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which matters, but it has not landed far enough below league to call this a skill to buy. This is who he is: usable, unremarkable. Hold. 0 K and 0 SV ROS: a streaming-only arm at 3.91 ERA / 1.39 WHIP, so hold only as waiver-wire depth, not a buy.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.5%—+6.3% ▲vs his ~15.2% career norm
  • Walk %10.9%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~11.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.03)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.6%
believable since Jun 138.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
173 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
173 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
256 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
256 / 200 TBF
ERA3.14
3.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
norm21.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +6.3% ▲
256 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
norm10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
256 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
.283*
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
256 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.5%
26.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
256 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
94.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1003 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.5%→18.7%signal0 K — K% 21.5% (signal) tempered to career ~15.2% → projected 18.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal3.91 ERA — xERA 4.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 10.9% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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