week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Ryan Rolison
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.13); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 14ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0
Rolison is a hold — league-average profile, no edge.
ROS projects K 16 YTD → 14 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.2%—+10.0% ▲vs his ~15.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.13)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
90 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
90 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
143 / 200 TBF
xERA4.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
143 / 200 TBF
ERA2.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.30vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +10.0% ▲
143 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.1% norm — expect it to fall.
143 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
90 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
550 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.2%→19.4%signal14 K — K% 25.2% (signal) tempered to career ~15.2% → projected 19.4% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 4.13noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.13 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 11.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.