MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Merrill Kelly
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Merrill Kelly

AZ·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.35 +2.25 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.56WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0

Kelly is a sell — his expected ERA says the skill is gone

His xERA is 6.35, more than two full runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing in his profile says he has been unlucky. His BABIP-against is not the story here; the contact allowed is. His expected wOBA allowed sits at .377 against a league average of .315, and he gives up 41.5% hard contact and 11.0% barrels, both above league. He strikes out just 16.1% of batters while walking 9.9%, so the swinging strikes aren't there to bail him out. His expected ERA has climbed across the sample rather than settled. The results aren't hiding good pitching — they're an accurate read on a pitcher who is getting hit hard. Sell. A 5.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 0 K ROS is waiver-wire material — drop him and stream the spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.1%—−5.5% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.35 +2.25 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.5%
41.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
516 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
516 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.377
believable since May 25.377*
lg avg .315 ▲+.062vs his norm —
704 / 200 TBF
xERA6.35
6.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.25vs his norm —
704 / 200 TBF
ERA4.94
4.94*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.84vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
162 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
norm16.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −5.5% ▼
704 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
704 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
516 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
704 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
704 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
2621 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.1%→17.3%signal0 K — K% 16.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 17.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.35signal5.56 ERA — xERA 6.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.56 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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