MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Merrill Kelly
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Merrill Kelly

AZ·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.71 +2.61 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 9ERA 5.80WHIP 1.44W 1–2SV 0

Kelly is a sell — stable skill sits well below league.

His expected ERA is 6.71, more than two and a half runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .387, 72 points above league average, so the contact he is giving up is genuinely poor, not a sequencing accident. He strikes out 15.4% of batters against a league rate of 22%, and that is down from his 21.6% career baseline. He is not missing bats — his swinging-strike rate, 10.6%, is below league — and he chases hitters out of the zone more than average without getting the whiffs to show for it. He allows barrels on 11.8% of batted balls against 8% league. There is no bad-luck story here. Sell. 9 K and a 5.80 ERA ROS is waiver-wire dead weight — fade the name and stream the roster spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.4%—−6.2% ▼vs his ~21.6% career norm
  • Walk %10.0%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.71 +2.61 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.2%
42.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
474 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
474 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.387
believable since May 25.387*
lg avg .315 ▲+.072vs his norm —
641 / 200 TBF
xERA6.71
6.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.61vs his norm —
641 / 200 TBF
ERA5.06
5.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
147.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.4%
norm15.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm −6.2% ▼
641 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
norm10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
641 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
.283*
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
474 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
641 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
641 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
2372 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.4%→16.9%signal9 K — K% 15.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.6% → projected 16.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 6.71signal5.80 ERA — xERA 6.71 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 5.80 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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