week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Merrill Kelly
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Kelly is a sell — the numbers are ugly and stable.
His expected ERA is 7.29 — more than three runs above league average — and he has faced 234 batters, enough to trust that number. His actual line tracks with it: no bad-luck story hides the skill. Contact quality against him is terrible: 16.4% barrels allowed (double the league average) and 44.1% hard-hit, both stable at 177 batted balls. His strikeout rate has been stepping down across the sample, now at 14.1% — eight points below league, which limits his ceiling severely. The walk rate is slightly elevated. There is no luck mechanism to blame and no skill to fall back on. This is the level he is at. Sell.
Sell
high0.90
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.29 +3.19 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL177 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed16.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL177 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.408
lg avg .315 ▲+.093trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL234 / 200 TBF
xERA7.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.19trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL234 / 200 TBF
ERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96too early to trust
NOISE53.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL234 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL234 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018too early to trust
NOISE177 / 800 BIP