Rest of Season Projection
CamCategoryMerrill
114K ←71
2.75ERA ←6.08
1.05WHIP ←1.45
6–14W ←6–12
0SV0
Current Season
CamCategoryMerrill
81K ←33
1.50ERA ←5.06
0.85WHIP ←1.46
7W ←5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cam Schlittler
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.75 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
Merrill Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.15 is 1.69 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Cam Schlittler: 117 K / 2.74 ERA. Merrill Kelly: 72 K / 6.39 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).