MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Portrait of Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
AZ · P
Change to
Shane Bieber
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Merrill Kelly wins 2 (K, W); Shane Bieber wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
92.1
Shane Bieber
92.3
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
10.6%
Shane Bieber
10.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
15.4%
Shane Bieber
18.2%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
34.8%
Shane Bieber
29.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
42.2%
Shane Bieber
46.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
11.8%
Shane Bieber
10.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
.387
Shane Bieber
.368
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Merrill Kelly
4.686.38
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.06
5.80
Shane Bieber
4.686.38
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.00
5.30
WHIPlower is better
Merrill Kelly
1.172.24
now 1.46
1.44
Shane Bieber
1.172.24
now 2.00
1.41

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
4043.80
now 33
9
Shane Bieber
4043.80
now 6
8
Winshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
.0007
now 5
12
Shane Bieber
.0007
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellMerrill Kelly — sell.conf 0.90
Sell HighShane Bieber — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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