MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Shane Bieber

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.95 is 1.58 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 8ERA 5.30WHIP 1.41W 0–0SV 0

Bieber is a sell-high — the ERA is hiding a 5.95 xERA.

His ERA is 4.37, but the contact numbers behind it say the runs should be worse. His expected ERA is 5.95, more than a run and a half above the surface, and that gap has been widening across the sample. The reason the ERA looks respectable is his BABIP-against of .274, 21 points below the league average of .295 — and that number is not reliable yet at 174 balls in play. The skill metrics point the same direction: a .368 xwOBA allowed against a .315 league average, 46% hard-hit allowed against 40%, and 10.9% barrels against 8%. He strikes out 18.2% of batters, below league, and walks 9.9%, above it. Nothing here is getting better. Sell high. An 8 K / 5.30 ERA arm is a drag even in deep leagues — sell into the name before the floor gives out and he's streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.2%—−9.5% ▼vs his ~27.7% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%—+4.4% ▲vs his ~5.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.95 is 1.58 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.0%
46.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
174 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
174 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
.368*
lg avg .315 ▲+.053vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
xERA5.95
5.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.85vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
ERA4.37
4.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
55.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.2%
norm18.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm −9.5% ▼
242 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +4.4% ▲
242 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
.274*
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
930 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.2%→22.5%signal8 K — K% 18.2% (signal) lifted to career ~27.7% → projected 22.5% over ~10 remaining IP.
xERA 5.95signal5.30 ERA — xERA 5.95 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 9 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop8 K ROS, 5.30 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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