MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 11, 2026
Portrait of Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
AZ · P
Change to
Portrait of Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen
AZ · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Zac Gallen.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Merrill Kelly’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Zac Gallen wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Merrill Kelly wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
92.2
Zac Gallen
93.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
10.3%
Zac Gallen
8.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
14.4%
Zac Gallen
13.9%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
34.0%
Zac Gallen
31.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
43.7%
Zac Gallen
44.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
14.1%
Zac Gallen
11.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
.405
Zac Gallen
.383
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Merrill Kelly
4.576.77
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.06
6.28
Zac Gallen
4.576.77
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.16
5.65
WHIPlower is better
Merrill Kelly
1.361.54
now 1.46
1.44
Zac Gallen
1.361.54
now 1.47
1.43

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
4063.80
now 33
45
Zac Gallen
4063.80
now 42
55
Winshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
.00010.40
now 5
48
Zac Gallen
.00010.40
now 3
24

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellMerrill Kelly — sell.conf 0.90
SellZac Gallen — sell.conf 0.90
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