Zac Gallen
Gallen is a sell — his expected ERA is climbing and the strikeouts are gone.
His expected ERA is 6.64, a full 2.54 runs above league average, and it is not being propped up by anything that will regress back. The contact allowed confirms it: hitters are squaring him up for a .384 expected wOBA against a .315 league mark, with a 44.1% hard-hit rate and 10.8% barrels, both above league and both measured over enough batted balls to trust. The strikeout rate is the part that stands out most. He is fanning 13.6% of batters against a 22% league average, and his career baseline is 25%. That is not a slump in a small sample; it is a skill that has stepped down, and the expected-ERA trend is moving the same direction. The pitcher on the mound is worse than the one the market remembers. Sell. 0 K and a 5.75 ERA make him droppable — waiver-wire fodder, not a stash. The window is shut.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.6%—−11.4% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
- Walk %7.4%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.64 +2.54 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.