week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Zac Gallen
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Gallen is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His expected ERA is 5.20, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA might be lower in some weeks, but the underlying metrics tell the story. He allows a hard-hit rate of 45.2% and a barrel rate of 10.6%, both well above league average, and his strikeout rate is just 16.1% — nearly six points below average. There is no luck story to hide behind: his BABIP-against is near league average, and his xwOBA allowed of .355 is .040 above league. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, confirming the trend. The market may still be paying for the name, but the numbers are clear. Sell.
Sell
high0.88
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.20 +1.10 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL199 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL199 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 200 TBF
xERA5.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.10trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 200 TBF
ERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06too early to trust
NOISE59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019too early to trust
NOISE199 / 800 BIP