MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zac Gallen
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Zac Gallen

AZ·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 6.48 +2.38 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 49ERA 5.65WHIP 1.43W 2–4SV 0

Gallen is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 6.48, more than two runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The batters he faces are making consistently hard contact: 44.7% hard-hit rate and 11.0% barrel rate, each well above league and stable with over 300 batted balls. Strikeouts are not bailing him out — his strikeout rate has dropped to 13.9%, 11 points below his career baseline and trending downward. With a BABIP-against near league average, there is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. 49 K with a 5.65 ERA is a streaming-only starter in deep leagues; drop for someone who won't hurt your ratios.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.9%—−11.1% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.48 +2.38 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.7%
44.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
344 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
344 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.383
.383*
lg avg .315 ▲+.068vs his norm —
440 / 200 TBF
xERA6.48
6.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.38vs his norm —
440 / 200 TBF
ERA6.34
6.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
98 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.9%
norm13.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm −11.1% ▼
440 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
440 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.320
.320*
lg avg .295 ▲+.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
344 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
440 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
440 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
93.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
1644 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.9%→17.4%signal49 K — K% 13.9% (signal) lifted to career ~25.0% → projected 17.4% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 6.48signal5.65 ERA — xERA 6.48 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 59 IP.
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop49 K ROS, 5.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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