Zac Gallen
Gallen is a sell — the strikeouts are gone and the contact is hard.
His expected ERA is 6.59, more than two and a half runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The reason is not bad luck — hitters are squaring him up, with a 44.7% hard-hit rate allowed and 11.0% barrels, both well above league. What has vanished is the swing-and-miss: he strikes out 13.9% of batters against a 22% league average, and that rate sits ten points below his own 25% career baseline. Worse, both his expected ERA and his strikeout rate are moving the wrong direction across the sample. His walk rate is fine at 7%, so there is no command problem to fix — the stuff just is not missing bats anymore. The skill is what the numbers say. Sell. 11 K and a 5.72 ERA ROS make him streaming-only — drop him before the window closes.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.9%—−11.1% ▼vs his ~25.0% career norm
- Walk %7.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.59 +2.49 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.