Rest of Season Projection
MerrillCategoryTomoyuki
77K ←56
6.17ERA ←6.37
1.45WHIP →1.36
6–13W ←5–10
0SV0
Current Season
MerrillCategoryTomoyuki
33K ←31
5.06ERA →4.01
1.46WHIP →1.25
5W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.28 +3.18 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tomoyuki Sugano
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.60 is 3.62 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Merrill Kelly: 77 K / 6.17 ERA. Tomoyuki Sugano: 56 K / 6.37 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).