week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Tomoyuki Sugano
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 7.07 is 2.27 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 31ERA 6.03WHIP 1.35W 2–5SV 0
Sugano is a sell-high — ERA is masking contact problems.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.4%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~14.9% career norm
- Walk %6.4%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.07 is 2.27 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
285 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.397
lg avg .315 ▲+.082vs his norm —
358 / 200 TBF
xERA7.07
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.97vs his norm —
358 / 200 TBF
ERA4.80
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.70vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
84.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
358 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
358 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
285 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
358 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
358 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
1380 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.4%→14.0%signal31 K — K% 13.4% (signal) lifted to career ~14.9% → projected 14.0% over ~56 remaining IP.
xERA 7.07signal6.03 ERA — xERA 7.07 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 58 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop31 K ROS, 6.03 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.