MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tomoyuki Sugano
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.80 +2.70 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 7ERA 5.85WHIP 1.33W 1–1SV 0

Sugano is a sell — the strikeouts aren't there and the contact is hard

His expected ERA is 6.80 — 2.70 runs above the league average of 4.10 — and it has been climbing across the season. There is no luck story to hide behind. He strikes out 14% of batters, six percentage points below league average and below his own 14.9% career baseline, and that number has been stepping down, not up. A pitcher who misses that few bats cannot survive the contact he is giving up: opponents are barreling 12.3% of batted balls against a league average of 8.0%, with a 43.4% hard-hit rate allowed. His expected wOBA allowed is .389, far above the .315 league mark, over a sample well past reliable. The stuff is short and the results match. Sell. 7 K and a 5.85 ERA ROS is streaming-only; fade him before the window closes.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %14.0%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~14.9% career norm
  • Walk %5.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.80 +2.70 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
454 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
454 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.389
.389*
lg avg .315 ▲+.074vs his norm —
566 / 200 TBF
xERA6.80
6.80*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.70vs his norm —
566 / 200 TBF
ERA5.20
5.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
131.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.0%
norm14.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
566 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
norm5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
566 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
454 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
566 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
27.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
566 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
92.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
2173 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.0%→14.2%signal7 K — K% 14.0% (signal) held to career ~14.9% → projected 14.2% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 6.80signal5.85 ERA — xERA 6.80 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 58 IP.
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop7 K ROS, 5.85 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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