MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tomoyuki Sugano
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 6.35 +2.25 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 5.56WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Sugano is a sell — the skill is below league and trending worse

His expected ERA is 6.35, more than two full runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. Nothing unreliable is holding the surface up: his walk rate is 5.5%, below league, so this is not a control problem, and his strikeout rate is 14.6% against a league average of 22%. He simply does not miss bats — a 9.3% swinging-strike rate and 92.6 mph average fastball both sit under league. Worse, the expected ERA has been climbing across the sample while his strikeout rate steps down, and the 14.6% lands just under his 14.9% career mark. The contact he allows backs it up: a .377 expected wOBA allowed and 11.7% barrels, both well above average. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. With a 0 K / 5.56 ERA / 1.30 WHIP line, this is waiver-wire streaming-only — drop and move on.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %14.6%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~14.9% career norm
  • Walk %5.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.35 +2.25 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.2%
43.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
521 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.7%
11.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
521 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.377
.377*
lg avg .315 ▲+.062vs his norm —
656 / 200 TBF
xERA6.35
6.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.25vs his norm —
656 / 200 TBF
ERA5.37
5.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.27vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.6%
norm14.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
656 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
656 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
.276*
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
521 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
656 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.8%
27.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
656 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
2522 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.6%→14.7%signal0 K — K% 14.6% (signal) held to career ~14.9% → projected 14.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.35signal5.56 ERA — xERA 6.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 58 IP.
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 5.56 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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