week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Tomoyuki Sugano
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Sugano is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.71 is 3.70 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed16.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL194 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.417
lg avg .315 ▲+.102trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL242 / 200 TBF
xERA7.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.61trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL242 / 200 TBF
ERA4.01
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09too early to trust
NOISE58.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL242 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL242 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044too early to trust
NOISE194 / 800 BIP