Rest of Season Projection
MichaelCategoryTomoyuki
89K ←58
5.26ERA ←6.36
1.47WHIP →1.36
2–5W →5–10
0SV0
Current Season
MichaelCategoryTomoyuki
43K ←31
7.22ERA →4.01
1.90WHIP →1.25
2W →4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Michael Lorenzen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.89 +1.79 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tomoyuki Sugano
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 7.58 is 3.60 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Michael Lorenzen: 89 K / 5.26 ERA. Tomoyuki Sugano: 58 K / 6.36 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).