MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 21, 2026
Portrait of Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
AZ · P
Change to
Portrait of Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
COL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Merrill Kelly wins 2 (WHIP, W); Michael Lorenzen wins 2 (K, ERA); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
92.2
Michael Lorenzen
94.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
10.3%
Michael Lorenzen
8.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
14.4%
Michael Lorenzen
15.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Merrill Kelly
34.7%
Michael Lorenzen
24.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
44.6%
Michael Lorenzen
46.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
13.8%
Michael Lorenzen
8.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Merrill Kelly
.406
Michael Lorenzen
.359
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Merrill Kelly
4.208.08
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.06
6.34
Michael Lorenzen
4.208.08
lg xERA 4.10
now 7.22
5.07
WHIPlower is better
Merrill Kelly
1.262.08
now 1.46
1.44
Michael Lorenzen
1.262.08
now 1.90
1.50

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
4048.60
now 33
39
Michael Lorenzen
4048.60
now 43
42
Winshigher is better
Merrill Kelly
.0009.40
now 5
37
Michael Lorenzen
.0009.40
now 2
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellMerrill Kelly — sell.conf 0.90
SellMichael Lorenzen — sell.conf 0.90
Tweet