Rest of Season Projection
MerrillCategoryMichael
77K →82
6.17ERA →5.43
1.45WHIP ←1.48
6–13W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
MerrillCategoryMichael
33K →43
5.06ERA ←7.22
1.46WHIP ←1.90
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.28 +3.18 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Michael Lorenzen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.14 +2.04 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Merrill Kelly: 77 K / 6.17 ERA. Michael Lorenzen: 82 K / 5.43 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).