MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Portrait of Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello
BOS · P
Change to
Portrait of Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
AZ · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Brayan Bello.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Merrill Kelly’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Brayan Bello wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Merrill Kelly wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Brayan Bello
94.7
Merrill Kelly
92.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Brayan Bello
12.3%
Merrill Kelly
10.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Brayan Bello
16.6%
Merrill Kelly
14.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Brayan Bello
32.0%
Merrill Kelly
34.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Brayan Bello
44.1%
Merrill Kelly
44.6%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Brayan Bello
10.4%
Merrill Kelly
13.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Brayan Bello
.373
Merrill Kelly
.406
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Brayan Bello
4.566.80
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.63
5.39
Merrill Kelly
4.566.80
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.06
6.30
WHIPlower is better
Brayan Bello
1.331.73
now 1.64
1.42
Merrill Kelly
1.331.73
now 1.46
1.44

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Brayan Bello
4046.60
now 40
41
Merrill Kelly
4046.60
now 33
40
Winshigher is better
Brayan Bello
.0009.40
now 2
13
Merrill Kelly
.0009.40
now 5
37

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellBrayan Bello — sell.conf 0.90
SellMerrill Kelly — sell.conf 0.90
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