Rest of Season Projection
JacobCategoryMerrill
163K ←80
2.19ERA ←6.15
0.98WHIP ←1.45
6–13W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
JacobCategoryMerrill
108K ←33
1.65ERA ←5.06
0.79WHIP ←1.46
6W ←5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jacob Misiorowski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.19 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.26 +3.16 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jacob Misiorowski: 163 K / 2.19 ERA. Merrill Kelly: 80 K / 6.15 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).