week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Brandon Sproat
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.77 +0.67 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.75 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 54ERA 4.54WHIP 1.38W 1–1SV 0
Sproat is a sell — stable skill below league, no luck.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.7%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
- Walk %11.1%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~11.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.77 +0.67 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
217 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
217 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
ERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
352 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
352 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
217 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
1458 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→24.1%signal54 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to career ~22.9% → projected 24.1% over ~52 remaining…
xERA 4.77signal4.54 ERA — xERA 4.77 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 49 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop54 K ROS, 4.54 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.