week 10
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
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Brandon Sproat
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Sproat is a sell — his xERA is trending the wrong way.
His expected ERA sits at 5.10, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping up across the sample — not stabilizing in the other direction. With 217 batters faced, that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His xwOBA allowed is .352, well above the .315 league average, and his barrel rate allowed is 9.8% against a league average of 8.0% — both stable on 133 batted-ball events. There is no luck story to fall back on: his walk rate is 12.4%, significantly above league average, and his strikeout rate at 24.0% offers only modest offset. The skill is below league and the data says it is real. Sell.
Sell
high0.85
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL217 / 200 TBF
xERA5.10
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.00trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL217 / 200 TBF
ERA6.25
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.15too early to trust
NOISE49 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL217 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL217 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019too early to trust
NOISE133 / 800 BIP