Brandon Sproat
Sproat is a sell — contact allowed and walks say the skill isn't there
His expected ERA is 5.02, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and it has enough batters behind it to trust. His expected wOBA allowed of .341 sits 26 points above league, and the hard contact backs it up: 8.5% barrels allowed and 42.7% hard-hit allowed, both slightly worse than league. Worse, his expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, so this is a number moving the wrong direction rather than a rough patch to wait out. He walks 12.3% of batters against a league average of 8.0%, and a walk rate that high is not noise at his sample. The 96.8 mph fastball and the 23.9% strikeout rate do not offset it. The ERA is not hiding better pitching underneath. Sell. 0 K and a 4.70 ERA make this a drop — waiver-wire fringe, not a stash.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.3%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
- Strikeout %23.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~22.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.02 +0.92 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
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