week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jeremiah Estrada
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.56); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0–2
Estrada is a hold — limited data, mixed signals.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.0%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~34.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.56)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
49 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA3.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
20.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +1.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.3% norm — expect it to fall.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.239
lg avg .295 ▼−.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
322 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.0%→32.4%signal26 K — K% 28.0% (signal) lifted to career ~34.3% → projected 32.4% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.56noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.56 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.