week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jeremiah Estrada
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Estrada is a hold — the strikeouts are real, the run prevention is not proven.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.2%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~34.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
72 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.2%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +2.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.3% norm — expect it to fall.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
72 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
512 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.2%→32.7%signal0 K — K% 30.2% (signal) lifted to career ~34.3% → projected 32.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 12.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.