309 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Matt McLain
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.243 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 5AVG .213R 18RBI 18SB 6
McLain is a buy-low — contact intact, BABIP noise dragging results.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.243 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
187 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
187 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
187 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
309 / 160 PA
wOBA.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
309 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
309 / 60 PA
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
309 / 120 PA
BABIP.243
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm −.087 ▼BABIP is below his ~.330 norm — expect it to rise.
187 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
309 / 50 PA
Chase %25.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
309 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→9.0%signal5 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (signal) tempered to career ~9.0% → projected 9.0%.
BABIP 0.243→0.266 regressednoise.213 AVG — BABIP 0.243 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.273 (xBA 0.226) → 0.266.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~189 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~189 projected PA.
run rate / role6 SB — his steal rate (7 in 57 G) over ~189 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.