Rest of Season Projection
AdamCategoryMatt
2HR →9
39R ←30
15RBI →29
0SB →10
.164AVG →.227
Current Season
AdamCategoryMatt
1HR →5
15R →22
6RBI →21
0SB →7
.227AVG ←.198
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adam Frazier
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.308 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.237 is 0.049 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Matt McLain
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Adam Frazier: 2 HR / 39 R. Matt McLain: 9 HR / 30 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).