week 17
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL
Gerrit Cole
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 53ERA 3.48WHIP 1.21W 3–5SV 0
Cole is a buy — skill is real, velocity is back.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
- Walk %5.3%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~6.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
146 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
146 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —
207 / 200 TBF
ERA4.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
207 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
207 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
146 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
207 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
207 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
770 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→25.6%signal53 K — K% 22.7% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 25.6% over ~49 remaining IP.
xERA 3.48signal3.48 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.48 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep53 K ROS, 3.48 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.