Rest of Season Projection
GerritCategoryPaul
100K →122
4.10ERA →2.29
1.30WHIP →1.05
4–9W →6–13
0SV0
Current Season
GerritCategoryPaul
12K →75
0.00ERA ←2.89
0.71WHIP ←0.86
1W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.48 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.29, 1.81 below league — production is earned
Gerrit Cole: 100 K / 4.10 ERA. Paul Skenes: 122 K / 2.29 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).