MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Christian Scott
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Christian Scott

NYM·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.72
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Scott is a buy — the strikeouts and contact suppression are real

His expected ERA is 3.70, four-tenths of a run better than league average, and he has faced enough batters — 474 — for that number to be trusted. The skill underneath it is contact suppression: he gives up a 34.5% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average and a 6.3% barrel rate against 8%, both past the point where those numbers become reliable. He strikes out 28.3% of batters, well above the 22% league mark, so the outs are his own. The walk rate at 9.9% is the one soft spot and it caps the ceiling a little. What separates him from the next pitcher on this list is the trend: his expected ERA is stepping down across the sample while his fastball velocity is stepping up to 95.5 mph. The profile is getting better, not holding. Buy. A 3.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP make him a deep-league asset to add — not a must-roster, but a real buy.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.3%—+5.1% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
284 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
284 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
believable since Jul 4.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
474 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
3.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
474 / 200 TBF
ERA3.85
3.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
norm28.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +5.1% ▲
474 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
474 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
.298*
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
284 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
474 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
474 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
1964 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→26.8%signal0 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 26.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups