MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Christian Scott
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Christian Scott

NYM·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.84); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.84WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Christian Scott is a hold — near-league-average skill, stable all around.

His expected ERA is 3.84, about a quarter-run better than league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to count. His expected wOBA allowed is .303, .012 better than league average. Everything else supports the same read: he strikes out 27.8% of batters, walks 10.2%, and misses bats at 13.1% — each a bit better than league, none of it extreme. His walk rate is the one number that could tip the other way if it climbs. The xERA has been stepping down across the season, which is the part worth watching, but the move is small and the sample is steady. The skill is real; it is also roughly league average. No edge to exploit. Hold. 13 K and a 3.84 ERA is deep-league filler only — hold the stash, but no starts worth chasing.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.8%—+4.6% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %10.2%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
258 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
258 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
believable since Jul 4.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
431 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
431 / 200 TBF
ERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
99.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.8%
norm27.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +4.6% ▲
431 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
norm10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
431 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
.298*
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
258 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
431 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
431 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
1803 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.8%→26.3%signal13 K — K% 27.8% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 26.3% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 3.84signal3.84 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.84 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.2% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.84 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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