week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Framber Valdez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.38); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.28WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0
Valdez is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable driving it.
ROS projects K 54 YTD → 0 ROS, ERA 4.39 YTD → 4.28 ROS, WHIP 1.32 YTD → 1.40 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.8%—−5.4% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
- Walk %8.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
542 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
542 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
758 / 200 TBF
xERA4.38
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —
758 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −5.4% ▼
758 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
758 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
542 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
758 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
758 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
2768 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→18.9%signal0 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 18.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.38signal4.28 ERA — xERA 4.38 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 8.8% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.28 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.