MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Framber Valdez
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Framber Valdez

DET·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 4.44 +0.34 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65
ROSK 11ERA 4.32WHIP 1.39W 0–1SV 0

Valdez is a sell — the skill is below league and climbing the wrong way.

His expected ERA is 4.44, a third of a run above the league average of 4.10, and 688 batters faced is well past the point where that number means something. Nothing unlucky is propping it up — that is the level he is at. He strikes out 17.3% of batters, nearly five points below league, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.2% sits under the 11.0% average, so the misses are not coming. He walks 8.4% of batters, slightly worse than league average. The expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. His contact quality allowed is closer to the middle — a 5.8% barrel rate is better than league, and his hard-hit rate allowed is only a touch high — but the strikeout and walk profile drags the rest down. Sell. 11 K and a 4.32 ERA ROS is waiver-wire filler — drop him and stream the spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.3%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %8.4%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.44 +0.34 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.7%
42.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
497 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
497 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
688 / 200 TBF
xERA4.44
4.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.34vs his norm —
688 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
4.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.3%
norm17.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
688 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
norm8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
688 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.296
.296*
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
497 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
688 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
688 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
2501 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.3%→18.6%signal11 K — K% 17.3% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 18.6% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.44signal4.32 ERA — xERA 4.44 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.32 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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