MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Framber Valdez
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Framber Valdez

DET·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.19); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 50ERA 4.16WHIP 1.35W 1–2SV 0

Valdez is a hold — league average, stable, nothing to exploit.

His expected ERA is 4.19, within a hair of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA may bounce around, but that is noise around a skill that is simply average. His contact-suppression metrics are solid — barrel rate allowed is 6.5%, below the 8% league average, and his hard-hit rate allowed is near league average — but those alone do not push his xERA below average. His strikeout rate (18.6%) is below league average, and his walk rate (7.7%) is near average. Nothing is trending: the xERA has been stepping up across the sample, settling in at par. There is no luck story to buy or sell, and no unstable metric driving the line one way or another. Hold. 50 K, 4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1-2 W, 0 SV: a streaming-only profile at best.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.6%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.7%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.19)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
41.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
336 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
336 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
469 / 200 TBF
xERA4.19
4.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —
469 / 200 TBF
ERA4.10
4.10*
lg avg 4.10 0.00vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
107.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
norm18.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
469 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
469 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
336 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
469 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
469 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1695 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→20.0%signal50 K — K% 18.6% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 20.0% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 4.19signal4.16 ERA — xERA 4.19 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop50 K ROS, 4.16 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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