MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Connor Norby
383 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Connor Norby

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.310); strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.336 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Norby is a hold — league-average skill, no edge either way

His expected wOBA is .310, roughly level with the league average of .315, and 383 plate appearances is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .323, so the surface line isn't being propped up by a stat that will collapse. The one number that looks inflated is his BABIP at .336, well above the .295 league average, but he has just 224 balls in play against the 800 needed for it to be trusted, so some batting-average regression is likely without changing the underlying skill read. Contact quality is soft: 87.4 mph average exit velocity and a 36.2% hard-hit rate, both below league. He strikes out 28.2% of the time, and that rate has been climbing, which caps his floor. A high walk rate keeps the bat playable but doesn't move the value. Hold. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line makes him a drop — deep-league dart only, streaming-only at this tier.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~11.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.310)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.336 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
87.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
224 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
224 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
224 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
383 / 160 PA
wOBA.323
believable since Jun 2.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
383 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
383 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
383 / 120 PA
BABIP.336
norm.336*
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm +.018 ▲BABIP is above his ~.318 norm — expect it to fall.
224 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
383 / 50 PA
Chase %28.1%
28.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
383 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→9.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) lifted to career ~11.2% → projected 9.3%.
BABIP 0.336→0.299 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.336 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.284 (xBA 0.220) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (6 in 53 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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