Is Connor Norby a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Connor Norby's rest-of-season outlook?

29.6% strikeout rate, 86.7 mph exit velo — no contact floor.

324 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Connor Norby

COL·2B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Sell stable xwOBA 0.298 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.58

ROSHR 1AVG .202R 3RBI 3SB 1

Norby is a sell — his bat is below league and it is not luck.

His expected wOBA is .298, which is .017 below the league average of .315, and his 324 plate appearances are past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .307, almost the same, so no bad-luck story is holding the line down. The contact quality backs that up: 86.7 mph average exit velocity, a 35.3% hard-hit rate, and 6.5% barrels, all under league. He strikes out 29.6% of the time and swings and misses at 15.4% of pitches, both well above league and both stable. The trend is worse than the level — his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample and his strikeout rate has been stepping up. There is no slump to buy and no skill to hold. Sell. 1 HR / 3 R / 3 RBI / 1 SB / .202 AVG rest of the way makes him a drop — streaming-only, a deep-league drag, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.5%—−4.7% ▼vs his ~11.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.298 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —

184 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —

184 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −4.7% ▼

184 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.298

lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —

324 / 160 PA

wOBA.307

lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —

324 / 200 PA

Strikeout %29.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —

324 / 60 PA

Walk %10.8%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —

324 / 120 PA

BABIP.315

lg avg .295 ▲+.020vs his norm −.003 ▼BABIP is below his ~.318 norm — expect it to rise.

184 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %15.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —

324 / 50 PA

Chase %27.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —

324 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.5%→9.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.5% (signal) lifted to career ~11.2% → projected 9.0%.

BABIP 0.315→0.281 regressednoise.202 AVG — BABIP 0.315 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.211) → 0.281.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (6 in 53 G) over ~41 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons