week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Davis Martin
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.48WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0
Martin is a sell — his expected ERA keeps climbing.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
- Strikeout %19.8%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~20.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
439 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
439 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
617 / 200 TBF
xERA4.69
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —
617 / 200 TBF
ERA3.94
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.16vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
146 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
617 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
617 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
439 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
617 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
617 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
2349 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.8%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 19.8% (signal) held to career ~20.0% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.69signal4.48 ERA — xERA 4.69 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.48 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.