MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Davis Martin
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Davis Martin

CWS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.63 +0.53 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.71
ROSK 14ERA 4.44WHIP 1.35W 1–2SV 0

Martin is a sell — his skill sits below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 4.63, more than half a run above the league average of 4.10, and at 553 batters faced that number is reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .330, above the league average of .315. The ERA is not hiding a better pitcher. He strikes out 20.6% of batters, below the league average of 22.0%, and his contact allowed is worse than average: a 44.0% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%. He walks 7.2%, a touch better than league, but that is the only place he gains anything. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling. There is no unlucky gap to reclaim here. Sell. 14 K and a 4.44 ERA make him a drop, not a sell-high: streaming-only arm, no window worth holding.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.6%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~20.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.63 +0.53 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.0%
44.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
390 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
390 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
553 / 200 TBF
xERA4.63
4.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —
553 / 200 TBF
ERA4.13
4.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
norm20.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
553 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
553 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.318
.318*
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
390 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
553 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
553 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
2115 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.6%→20.4%signal14 K — K% 20.6% (signal) tempered to career ~20.0% → projected 20.4% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 4.63signal4.44 ERA — xERA 4.63 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop14 K ROS, 4.44 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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