MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Davis Martin
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Davis Martin

CWS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.36); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 61ERA 4.27WHIP 1.34W 5–10SV 0

Martin is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA is 4.36, within a quarter run of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His strikeout rate and walk rate are both essentially league average, and his expected wOBA allowed is .323, also right around the league mark. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which is a lingering concern — but nothing here is unstable enough to sell or cheap enough to buy. He allows a higher hard-hit rate (44.8% against 40.0% league) and chases above league, but the barrel rate is actually below league, and those contact metrics offset. There is no luck story driving his line. He is what the numbers say: a roughly league-average pitcher. Hold. 61 K, 4.27 ERA, 1.34 WHIP: a streaming-only hold in deep leagues, but don't expect more than a modest WHIP tax.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.1%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~20.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.36)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.8%
44.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
290 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
290 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
xERA4.36
4.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
ERA3.41
3.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.69vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.1%
norm22.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
417 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
417 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.325
.325*
lg avg .295 ▲+.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
290 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
1607 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.1%→21.4%signal61 K — K% 22.1% (signal) tempered to career ~20.0% → projected 21.4% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 4.36signal4.27 ERA — xERA 4.36 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 68 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role5-10 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop61 K ROS, 4.27 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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