126 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Travis Bazzana
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Bazzana is a sell-high — BABIP is doing the heavy lifting.
Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, and the surface line is ahead of the underlying skill. His actual wOBA is .373, but the expected wOBA is .337, a 36-point gap that points to regression. The source of the gap is his BABIP of .354 — 59 points above the league average of .295 — and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 85. The contact quality metrics are merely average: 89.9 mph exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate, and a barrel rate of 3.5% that is about half the league average. When the BABIP normalizes, the production will drop. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.64
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.354 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.336 is 0.037 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL85 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL85 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021too early to trust
NOISE126 / 160 PA
wOBA.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058too early to trust
NOISE126 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 60 PA
Walk %11.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 120 PA
BABIP.354
lg avg .295 ▲+.059too early to trust
NOISE85 / 800 BIP