MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Travis Bazzana
517 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

Travis Bazzana

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bazzana is a sell — below-league contact and no luck to blame

His expected wOBA is .299, .016 below the league average of .315, and he has 517 plate appearances behind it — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The gap between his actual wOBA of .328 and that expected mark is the whole problem: his line reads above league, but his contact quality doesn't earn it. He averages 87.6 mph off the bat, a tick below league, with a 36.2% hard-hit rate and 5.2% barrels — both below the league marks across a 347-batted-ball sample. His expected wOBA has been stepping down as the sample filled in, which is the wrong direction for anyone buying the production. His plate discipline is fine; that only means the outcome is the outcome. The bat is what the numbers say it is. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is pure drop-tier — fade the production, cut the tax.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.6 mph
87.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
347 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
347 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
347 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.299
believable since Jun 10.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
517 / 160 PA
wOBA.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
517 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.7%
20.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
517 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
517 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
347 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
517 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
517 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.2%→5.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.286→0.266 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.224) → 0.266.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (8 in 30 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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