MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Travis Bazzana
454 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Travis Bazzana

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.301); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSAVG .218HR 0R 4RBI 3SB 3

Bazzana is a hold — league average, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected wOBA is .301, close to the league average of .315, and he has 454 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .321, so he has gotten a small amount of luck on balls in play, but not enough to change the call. The contact quality is the concern: 87.8 mph average exit velocity, a 36.2% hard-hit rate, and 5.0% barrels are all below league average, and his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. The plate discipline is genuinely good — an 11.0% walk rate against an 8.5% league average, a 20.9% strikeout rate, and a 26.5% chase rate. Nothing here is unstable, and nothing here is a bargain. Hold. Still, 0 HR / 4 R / 3 RBI / 3 SB / .218 AVG over the ROS is pure rotational counting — a drop-tier streamer, not a deep-league hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.301)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.8 mph
87.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.2 mphvs his norm —
303 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% −3.8%vs his norm —
303 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.0%vs his norm —
303 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
believable since Jun 10.301*
lg avg .315 −.014vs his norm —
454 / 160 PA
wOBA.321
.321*
lg avg .315 +.006vs his norm —
454 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.9%
20.9%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.1%vs his norm —
454 / 60 PA
Walk %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.5% +2.5%vs his norm —
454 / 120 PA
BABIP.291
.291*
lg avg .295 −.004vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
303 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% −0.1%vs his norm —
454 / 50 PA
Chase %26.5%
26.5%*
lg avg 28.5% −2.0%vs his norm —
454 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.291→0.269 regressednoise.218 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.255 (xBA 0.227) → 0.269.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (8 in 30 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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