417 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW
Bo Bichette
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.328); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .267R 21RBI 21SB 1
Bo Bichette is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects HR 5 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .216 YTD → .267 ROS, R 28 YTD → 21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
316 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
316 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
316 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
417 / 160 PA
wOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
417 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
417 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
417 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.048 ▼BABIP is below his ~.332 norm — expect it to rise.
316 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
417 / 50 PA
Chase %40.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.6%vs his norm —
417 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.0%→7.3%signal4 HR — Barrel% 7.0% (signal) lifted to career ~7.8% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.284→0.307 regressednoise.267 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.322 (xBA 0.283) → 0.307.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~200 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~200 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 60 G) over ~200 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.