MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bo Bichette
696 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Bo Bichette

NYM·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Bichette is a buy — the contact is climbing and the sample is big.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 41.7%, above the 40.0% league average on 518 batted balls, well past the 50 it takes to trust it. His expected wOBA is .330, .015 above the league average of .315, and it has been rising too — on 696 plate appearances, that number is stable. His actual wOBA is .309, slightly below league, so the surface trails the skill; the line has room to catch up rather than give anything back. He strikes out 18.2% of the time, comfortably below the 22.0% league mark, which keeps his average from sagging. The one soft spot is a 40.9% chase rate that will cost him some ugly at-bats, but that does not touch the verdict. The production is earned. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.4%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.330, +0.015 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
518 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.7%
41.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
518 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
518 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.330
.330*
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
696 / 160 PA
wOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
696 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.2%
18.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
696 / 60 PA
Walk %7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
696 / 120 PA
BABIP.296
norm.296*
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm −.036 ▼BABIP is below his ~.332 norm — expect it to rise.
518 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
696 / 50 PA
Chase %40.9%
40.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.4%vs his norm —
696 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→6.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) lifted to career ~7.8% → projected 6.8%.
BABIP 0.296→0.304 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.296 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.318 (xBA 0.280) → 0.304.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 60 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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