MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bo Bichette
616 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Bo Bichette

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.328); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .263HR 1R 5RBI 5SB 0

Bichette is a hold — his skill is league average and stable.

His expected wOBA is .328, .013 above the league average of .315, and he has 616 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .314, tracking right with it, so nothing on the luck side is dragging the line up or down. His contact quality is close to league average across the board: 89.6 mph exit velocity, a 41.6% hard-hit rate, and a 6.7% barrel rate that sits just under the 8.0% league mark. The one thing worth flagging is his chase rate — 41.1% against a league average of 28.5% — but that is a profile trait, not an unstable stat, and his 18.0% strikeout rate is better than league. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample, which is mild encouragement, but not enough to move this off neutral. Hold. 1 HR / 5 R / 5 RBI / 0 SB / .263 AVG keeps him a deep-league rotational hold, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.7%−1.1%vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
89.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.6 mphvs his norm —
461 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 40.0% +1.6%vs his norm —
461 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% −1.3%vs his norm −1.1%
461 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.328
.328*
lg avg .315 +.013vs his norm —
616 / 160 PA
wOBA.314
.314*
lg avg .315 −.001vs his norm —
616 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.0%
18.0%*
lg avg 22.0% −4.0%vs his norm —
616 / 60 PA
Walk %6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.5% −1.7%vs his norm —
616 / 120 PA
BABIP.301
norm.301*
lg avg .295 +.006vs his norm −.031 BABIP is below his ~.332 normexpect it to rise.
461 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% −0.5%vs his norm —
616 / 50 PA
Chase %41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 28.5% +12.6%vs his norm —
616 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.7%→7.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.7% (signal) lifted to career ~7.8% → projected 7.0%.
BABIP 0.301→0.308 regressednoise.263 AVG — BABIP 0.301 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.317 (xBA 0.279) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 60 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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