week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Yoendrys Gómez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.06 is 1.56 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23WHIP 1.26ERA 3.81W 0–0SV 2–3
Gómez is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.2%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
- Walk %10.6%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~10.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.06 is 1.56 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
127 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.345
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 TBF
ERA3.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
188 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
188 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
127 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
713 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.2%→20.7%signal23 K — K% 20.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 20.7% over ~24 remaining IP.
xERA 5.06noise3.81 ERA — xERA 5.06 (noise) blended 8% skill / 92% league 3.70 at 29 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 8…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.81 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.