Yoendrys Gómez

Gómez is a sell-high — his ERA is a BABIP mirage.

His ERA is 4.08, nearly dead on league average, but the building blocks underneath it point to a pitcher who should be worse. The key metric holding the ERA down is his BABIP-against of .260 — well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has only 83. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA jumps to 5.31, more than a run above the ERA. A 1.23-run gap between ERA and xERA is a clear sell-high signal. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. His strikeout rate and contact quality allowed are near league average, so there is no elite skill to offset the coming regression. The surface looks fine; the underlying numbers do not. Sell high.