MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Will Smith
226 PA · week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Will Smith

LAD·C
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.257 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSHR 1AVG .247R 5RBI 5SB 0

Smith is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP, not the bat.

His bat has been better than his line all season. His expected wOBA is .379, well above the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .317, so the results are running well below the skill. The culprit is his BABIP: .257 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 159, so that gap is luck, not a sign about his hitting. His contact quality backs it up — a 12.6% barrel rate more than four points above league, and his hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample. He also strikes out just 16.8% of the time while walking 11.5%, so the at-bats are under control. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.6%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.257 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph
89.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.3%
40.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.6%
norm12.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.379
.379*
lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —
226 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
believable since Jun 7.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
226 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.8%
16.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
226 / 60 PA
Walk %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
226 / 120 PA
BABIP.257
norm.257*
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm −.036 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
226 / 50 PA
Chase %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —
226 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.6%→11.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 12.6% (signal) tempered to career ~9.7% → projected 11.0%.
BABIP 0.257→0.286 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.257 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.269) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~40 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~40 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 49 G) over ~40 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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