189 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Will Smith
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Smith is a buy-low — contact quality says the slump is noise.
His expected wOBA is .386, well above the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. Yet his actual wOBA is .322, dragged down by a BABIP of .271 that is 24 points below league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 135. That gap is luck, not a skill decline. His contact quality is stable and strong: 90.2 mph exit velocity, 14.1% barrels, and a hard-hit rate of 40.0% that matches league average despite everything. He also strikes out only 16.9% of the time and walks 10.6%, both well above average. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the underlying indicators are clear. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.73
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.271 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL135 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL135 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.386
lg avg .315 ▲+.071trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL189 / 160 PA
wOBA.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007too early to trust
NOISE189 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL189 / 60 PA
Walk %10.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL189 / 120 PA
BABIP.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024too early to trust
NOISE135 / 800 BIP