MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Will Smith
201 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Will Smith

LAD·C
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.73
ROSAVG .261HR 5R 21RBI 22SB 0

Smith is a buy-low — cold results, but the bat is intact.

His barrel rate is 13.4%, five points above league average, and his expected wOBA sits at .385 — fully 70 points above the league average of .315. Those numbers are stable: they are based on 201 plate appearances and 142 batted balls, well past the thresholds for reliability. The only thing holding his actual line down is a .272 BABIP, which is 23 points below league average and still unreliable at 142 balls in play — BABIP needs around 800 to settle. His hard-hit rate has ticked down, but it remains near league average at 39.4%. The bat is producing elite quality; the bounces just aren't falling. Buy low. 5 HR / 21 R / 22 RBI / 0 SB / .261 AVG — a deep-league buy-low with skill under the surface.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.4%—+3.7% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
90.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.4%
39.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +3.7% ▲
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.385
.385*
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —
201 / 160 PA
wOBA.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
201 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.9%
16.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
201 / 60 PA
Walk %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
201 / 120 PA
BABIP.272
norm.272*
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm −.021 ▼BABIP is below his ~.293 norm — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
201 / 50 PA
Chase %21.3%
21.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
201 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.4%→11.2%signal5 HR — Barrel% 13.4% (signal) tempered to career ~9.7% → projected 11.2%.
BABIP 0.272→0.295 regressednoise.261 AVG — BABIP 0.272 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.300 (xBA 0.275) → 0.295.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~180 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~180 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 49 G) over ~180 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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