Is Lawrence Butler a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy Low — underlying skill is better than results suggest; buy while the price is depressed.

What is Lawrence Butler's rest-of-season outlook?

Underperforming xwOBA by 36 points despite hard-hit rate.

274 PA · week 17

this weekBUY-LOW

last weekBUY-LOW

Lawrence Butler

ATH·RF

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.259 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67

ROSHR 4AVG .224R 17RBI 14SB 4

Butler is a buy-low — contact is up, BABIP is down.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample to 44.6%, above the league average of 40.0%, and at 167 batted balls the number is reliable. His exit velocity sits right at league average, and his barrel rate is a tick below, but the contact quality is intact. The problem is on the surface: his actual wOBA is .271, driven by a BABIP of .259 that is 36 points below league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 167 — that gap is noise, not skill. His expected wOBA is .307, much closer to league average and a truer reflection of his bat. The contact is here; the bounces are not. Buy low. 4 HR / 17 R / 14 RBI / 4 SB / .224 AVG is a reach; buy-low conviction doesn't change that this is a streamer-only hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.0%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~9.9% career norm

Drivers

babipNOISEBABIP 0.259 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —

167 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %44.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —

167 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −3.9% ▼

167 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.307

lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —

274 / 160 PA

wOBA.271

lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —

274 / 200 PA

Strikeout %26.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —

274 / 60 PA

Walk %12.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —

274 / 120 PA

BABIP.259

lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm −.038 ▼BABIP is below his ~.297 norm — expect it to rise.

167 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

274 / 50 PA

Chase %23.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —

274 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.0%→8.1%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to career ~9.9% → projected 8.1%.

BABIP 0.259→0.292 regressednoise.224 AVG — BABIP 0.259 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.301 (xBA 0.237) → 0.292.

on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~167 projected PA.

slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~167 projected PA.

run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (4 in 53 G) over ~167 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons