Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryLawrence
2HR →8
23R →29
31RBI ←24
13SB ←7
.235AVG ←.230
Current Season
BrandonCategoryLawrence
0HR →3
9R →17
12RBI →14
5SB ←4
.294AVG ←.164
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Lockridge
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.205 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Brandon Lockridge: 2 HR / 23 R. Lawrence Butler: 8 HR / 29 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).