MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
96 PA · week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Lockridge

MIL·LF
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.276 is 0.047 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67
ROSHR 1AVG .233R 12RBI 16SB 7

Lockridge is a sell-high — BABIP is the engine, and it will stop.

His BABIP is .417, 122 points above the league average of .295, and with only 61 balls in play it is pure noise — BABIP needs 800 BIP to be reliable. The inflated BABIP is why his actual wOBA of .323 is above league average. Strip the noise away and his expected wOBA is .276, 47 points lower. His contact quality does not support the surface: exit velocity 86.2 mph, hard-hit rate 32.8%, and barrel rate 1.6% — all below league. Limited data: this call rests on what little we have. The surface is a mirage built on luck. Sell high. 1 HR / 12 R / 16 RBI / 7 SB / .233 AVG makes Lockridge a drop — sell now before regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %1.6%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.276 is 0.047 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.2 mph
86.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.6%
norm1.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.276
.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 160 PA
wOBA.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.0%
26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
96 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 120 PA
BABIP.417
norm.417*
lg avg .295 ▲+.122vs his norm +.113 ▲BABIP is above his ~.304 norm — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
96 / 50 PA
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
96 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.6%→2.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 1.6% (signal) lifted to career ~2.9% → projected 2.6%.
BABIP 0.417→0.324 regressednoise.233 AVG — BABIP 0.417 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.316 (xBA 0.234) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup12 R — his run rate over ~131 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~131 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (5 in 28 G) over ~131 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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