MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
96 PA · week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Brandon Lockridge

MIL·LF
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67
ROSHR 2AVG .235R 23RBI 31SB 13

Lockridge is a sell-high — BABIP-driven line won't hold.

His actual wOBA is .325, but his expected wOBA is .277—a .048 gap that points to regression. The culprit is his BABIP: .417 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 61, so that gap is pure luck. Limited data: the stable metrics show contact quality below league — 86.2 mph exit velocity, 32.8% hard-hit rate, and just 1.6% barrels, all lagging the average. Strikeout rate is 26%, elevated. There is no skill story here to fall back on once the BABIP normalizes. Sell high. 2 HR / 23 R / 31 RBI / 13 SB / .235 AVG — a drop-tier sell candidate, not a build-around.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %1.6%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.417 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.2 mph
86.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.6%
norm1.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 160 PA
wOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.0%
26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
96 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
96 / 120 PA
BABIP.417
norm.417*
lg avg .295 ▲+.122vs his norm +.113 ▲BABIP is above his ~.304 norm — expect it to fall.
61 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.6%→2.6%signal2 HR — Barrel% 1.6% (signal) lifted to career ~2.9% → projected 2.6%.
BABIP 0.417→0.324 regressednoise.235 AVG — BABIP 0.417 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.316 (xBA 0.234) → 0.324.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~246 projected PA.
slugging + lineup31 RBI — his RBI rate over ~246 projected PA.
run rate / role13 SB — his steal rate (5 in 28 G) over ~246 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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