MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
111 PA · week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Brandon Lockridge

MIL·LF
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell High strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.258 is 0.044 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.66
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Lockridge is a sell-high — the BABIP is carrying the line.

His wOBA sits at .302, which looks playable, but the number underneath it is .403 BABIP — 108 points above the league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 68, so that gap is luck, not skill, and it is the only thing keeping his line afloat. Strip it out and his expected wOBA is .258, .044 below the surface. The contact quality says the same thing: 85.6 mph average exit velocity is more than three mph below league, and a 1.5% barrel rate against an 8% league average is bottom-of-the-roster contact. He strikes out 28.8% of the time and that rate has been climbing, which caps whatever floor the surface implies. Sell high.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %1.5%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.258 is 0.044 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.6 mph
85.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.6%vs his norm —
68 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.5%
norm1.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
68 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.258
.258*
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 160 PA
wOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
111 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
111 / 60 PA
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 120 PA
BABIP.403
norm.403*
lg avg .295 ▲+.108vs his norm +.099 ▲BABIP is above his ~.304 norm — expect it to fall.
68 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
111 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.5%→2.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.5% (signal) lifted to career ~2.9% → projected 2.5%.
BABIP 0.403→0.301 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.403 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.292 (xBA 0.216) → 0.301.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 28 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups