MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryne Nelson
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Ryne Nelson

AZ·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.25 +1.15 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 4.85WHIP 1.28W 0–1SV 0

Nelson is a sell — the expected ERA is above league and climbing.

His xERA is 5.25, more than a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The expected ERA has climbed across the sample rather than settled, so there is no version of this where the skill finds its level and the line turns around. He allows a 43.4% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrels, both above league, and strikes out just 17.5% of batters against a 22% league average. His 6.2% walk rate is good, and the fastball sits at 96.3 mph, but neither one pulls the run prevention up. There is no bad-luck story to fall back on. This is the level he is at. Sell. 11 K and a 4.85 ERA is waiver-wire fodder — drop him before the window closes on a streaming-only arm.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.5%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~19.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.2%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.25 +1.15 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
265 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.2%
10.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
265 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
xERA5.25
5.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —
355 / 200 TBF
ERA4.97
4.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.87vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
norm17.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
355 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
355 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
.255*
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
265 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
355 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1292 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→18.1%signal11 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~19.1% → projected 18.1% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 5.25signal4.85 ERA — xERA 5.25 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 65 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.85 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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