week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Ryne Nelson
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Nelson is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His expected ERA is 5.03, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA tracks close to it, so there is no bad-luck story inflating the line. His BABIP-against is near league average. The underlying metrics confirm the skill deficit: he strikes out only 18.7% of batters (below league), while allowing a 43.1% hard-hit rate and an 11.8% barrel rate — both well above league averages, with sample sizes past the stabilization thresholds. His expected wOBA allowed is .350, .035 above league. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, reinforcing the trend. There is no hidden upside here; the numbers are what they look like. Sell.
Sell
high0.83
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.03 +0.93 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL204 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.350
lg avg .315 ▲+.035trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL278 / 200 TBF
xERA5.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.93trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL278 / 200 TBF
ERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72too early to trust
NOISE65.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL278 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL278 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
lg avg .295 ▼−.062too early to trust
NOISE204 / 800 BIP