MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of José Soriano
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH

José Soriano

TOR·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSK 0ERA 4.33WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Soriano is a sell — hard contact allowed, no luck to blame

His expected ERA is 4.45, .35 above the league average of 4.10, and it has been climbing across the sample rather than settling. That number is stable at 745 batters faced. The hard contact is real: 37.4% hard-hit rate allowed and a 7.5% barrel rate, both confirming he is not missing bats when hitters connect. xwOBA allowed is .323, above league. The one part you would want to trust — swings and misses — is there at 13.4%, but the strikeout rate barely clears league at 22.7%, and he walks 9.8%. He throws 97.1 mph, but the contact allowed says velocity is not buying him outs. The profile is what it is at this sample; the results are earned. A 0 K / 4.33 ERA / 1.36 WHIP line is streaming-only; fade the skill gap and leave him on the wire.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.8%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~10.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.7%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.45 +0.35 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
494 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
494 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
745 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —
745 / 200 TBF
ERA3.91
3.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
745 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
745 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
494 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
745 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
745 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
2916 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 22.7% (signal) held to career ~23.1% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45signal4.33 ERA — xERA 4.45 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 76 IP.
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.33 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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