MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Rogers
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Tyler Rogers

TOR·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.76 is 0.95 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 3ERA 2.76WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0–0

Rogers is a sell-high — his ERA is built on luck that won't hold.

His ERA is 1.81, and almost none of that is repeatable. The number holding it down is his BABIP-against at .262, below the .295 league average — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to mean anything. He has 208. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.76, nearly a full run above what the scoreboard shows, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so regression is already pointing the right direction. He strikes out just 13% of batters, down from his 17.4% career baseline, and that trend is moving the wrong way. His 83.3 mph fastball doesn't miss bats. The ERA is a mirage. Sell high. The ROS line reads an honest 3 K / 2.76 ERA / 1.37 WHIP — a deep-league hold, not a closer, so sell the mirage while the window is open.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %13.4%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~17.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+3.1% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.76 is 0.95 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed26.9%
26.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.1%vs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.4%
1.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.259
believable since Aug 2.259*
lg avg .315 ▼−.056vs his norm —
269 / 200 TBF
xERA2.76
2.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.34vs his norm —
269 / 200 TBF
ERA1.81
1.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.29vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
64.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.4%
norm13.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
269 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +3.1% ▲
269 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
.262*
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
208 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
269 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
269 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo83.3 mph
83.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−10.7 mphvs his norm —
927 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.4%→15.1%signal3 K — K% 13.4% (signal) lifted to career ~17.4% → projected 15.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.76signal2.76 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.76 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 2.76 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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