MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Rogers
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Tyler Rogers

TOR·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.71 is 1.06 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 16WHIP 1.25ERA 3.64W 1–1SV 1–2

Rogers is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.

Tyler Rogers' ERA is 1.65, but that is not the real story. The number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .252, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize — he has 144. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 2.71, more than a run higher. His strikeout rate is 12.2%, well below his career baseline of 17.4% and far below the league average of 22%, so the room for error is small. He is not missing bats and he is not blowing batters away with an 83.2 mph fastball. When the BABIP normalizes, the ERA will follow. Sell high. With a 16 K / 3.64 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 1-1 W / 1-2 SV projection, sell now before regression hits. Deep-league only asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %12.2%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~17.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.71 is 1.06 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.7%
25.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.3%vs his norm —
144 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.4%
1.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
144 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.258
.258*
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 200 TBF
xERA2.71
2.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.39vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 200 TBF
ERA1.65
1.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
180 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
normbelievable since Jul 67.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
180 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.252
.252*
lg avg .295 ▼−.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
180 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
180 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo83.2 mph
83.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−10.8 mphvs his norm —
613 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.2%→15.0%signal16 K — K% 12.2% (signal) lifted to career ~17.4% → projected 15.0% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 2.71noise3.64 ERA — xERA 2.71 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 6%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.64 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups