week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Tyler Rogers
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.88 is 1.11 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.88WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0–0
Rogers is a sell-high — the 1.77 ERA is BABIP, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %13.6%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~17.4% career norm
- Walk %7.5%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.88 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed26.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.2%vs his norm —
228 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
228 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
xERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
ERA1.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
71 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.4%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
294 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
294 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
228 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo83.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−10.8 mphvs his norm —
1018 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 13.6%→15.2%signal0 K — K% 13.6% (signal) lifted to career ~17.4% → projected 15.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.88signal2.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 2.88 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.