322 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan McMahon
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.304); strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .210R 4RBI 4SB 1
McMahon is a hold — average skill, high strikeouts, nothing unstable.
ROS projects HR 6 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .207 YTD → .210 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.1%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~11.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.304)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
198 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
198 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
198 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
322 / 160 PA
wOBA.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
322 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
322 / 60 PA
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
322 / 120 PA
BABIP.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm −.026 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
198 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
322 / 50 PA
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
322 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→10.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (signal) lifted to career ~11.4% → projected 10.3%.
BABIP 0.283→0.299 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.283 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.304 (xBA 0.235) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~37 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~37 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 54 G) over ~37 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.