471 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Garrett Mitchell
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.387 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.67 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .226R 5RBI 6SB 1
Mitchell is a buy — earned production, and the average will give some back.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.8%—+3.3% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.387 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo93.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
263 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %53.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+13.2%vs his norm —
263 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +3.3% ▲
263 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.351
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
471 / 160 PA
wOBA.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
471 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
471 / 60 PA
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
471 / 120 PA
BABIP.387
lg avg .295 ▲+.092vs his norm +.038 ▲BABIP is above his ~.348 norm — expect it to fall.
263 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
471 / 50 PA
Chase %22.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
471 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.8%→10.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.8% (signal) tempered to career ~8.5% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.387→0.382 regressednoise.226 AVG — BABIP 0.387 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.265) → 0.382.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (6 in 49 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.