week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Brandyn Garcia
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.04); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Garcia is a hold — elite stuff, sample too thin to trust
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 4 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.04)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.222
lg avg .315 ▼−.093vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
164 / 200 TBF
xERA2.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.06vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
164 / 200 TBF
ERA2.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.02vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
43.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —
164 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.237
lg avg .295 ▼−.058vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
164 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
608 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.3%→30.6%signal4 K — K% 32.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 30.6% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 2.04noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.04 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 6.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.07 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.