week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Brandyn Garcia
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (1.95); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Garcia is a hold — skill near league, limited data.
ROS projects K 11 YTD → 16 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (1.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.218
lg avg .315 ▼−.097vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 TBF
xERA1.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 TBF
ERA1.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
23.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
88 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.235
lg avg .295 ▼−.060vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
88 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
88 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
315 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.7%→29.4%signal16 K — K% 30.7% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 29.4% over ~18 remainin…
xERA 1.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 1.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.