week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Tanner Scott
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.65); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 22ERA 3.66WHIP 1.23W 1–1SV 3–6
Scott is a hold — elite stuff, but the ERA story is noise.
ROS projects K 28 YTD → 22 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %34.7%—+4.9% ▲vs his ~29.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.65)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
lg avg .315 ▼−.060vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 200 TBF
xERA2.65
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.45vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
144 / 200 TBF
ERA2.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.7%vs his norm +4.9% ▲
144 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −8.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.6% norm — expect it to rise.
144 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Chase %40.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.2%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.7 mphvs his norm —
555 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.7%→31.9%signal22 K — K% 34.7% (signal) tempered to career ~29.8% → projected 31.9% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 2.65noise3.66 ERA — xERA 2.65 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 3.5% + contactnoise1.23 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 0.94 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)3-6 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep9 SV, 3.66 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.