week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Tanner Scott
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Scott is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP smoke.
His ERA sits at 2.19, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .196, 99 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 59. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.84, 0.65 above the surface line, pointing to regression. He does strike out 31.1% of batters — well above league — and allows a hard-hit rate of only 28.8%, which are real skills. But xERA is still above league average and the ERA-xERA gap is too large to ignore. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.81
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.65 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL59 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%too early to trust
NOISE59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
lg avg .315 ▼−.046too early to trust
NOISE90 / 200 TBF
xERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26too early to trust
NOISE90 / 200 TBF
ERA2.19
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.91too early to trust
NOISE24.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL90 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%too early to trust
NOISE90 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.196
lg avg .295 ▼−.099too early to trust
NOISE59 / 800 BIP