MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Scott
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tanner Scott

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.03, 1.07 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 3.03WHIP 1.08W 0–0SV 0–0

Scott is a buy — the skill is earned and getting sharper

His xERA is 3.03, a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His fastball is sitting at 96.9 mph, nearly three ticks above league, and it has been stepping up across the sample — not fading as the season wears on. The contact suppression is real: a .270 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, with a hard-hit rate allowed of 34.6% and barrels at 6.5%, both below league on a sample of 153 batted balls that clears the reliability threshold. He strikes out 32.7% of batters while walking just 6.0%. Nothing here is being held up by luck; the stuff and the results line up, and his expected ERA has been trending down. Buy. A 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with the underlying numbers to match makes him an asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.0%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~11.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %32.7%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~29.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.03, 1.07 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.6%
believable since May 2734.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
153 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
153 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.270
.270*
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
xERA3.03
3.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.07vs his norm —
251 / 200 TBF
ERA2.69
2.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.41vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
63.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.7%
norm32.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.7%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
251 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.0%
norm6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −5.6% ▼
251 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.299
.299*
lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.0%
20.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Chase %40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.2%vs his norm —
251 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
963 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.7%→31.4%signal0 K — K% 32.7% (signal) tempered to career ~29.8% → projected 31.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.03signal3.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.0% + contactsignal1.08 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.08 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard5 SV, 3.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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