MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Scott
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Tanner Scott

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.13, 0.97 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 5ERA 3.13WHIP 1.08W 0–0SV 1–1

Scott is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 3.13, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. The skill underneath it is clear: he strikes out 31.6% of batters, well above the 22% league average, and walks just 5.7%, below the 8% league mark. Both rates have cleared their stabilization points. He gets those strikeouts with a 19.8% swinging-strike rate and a 41.3% chase rate, both far above league. His fastball sits at 96.8 mph and has been ticking up, while his expected ERA has been stepping down. Nothing here is propped up by luck. Buy. Bank the 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP now — this is an asset, with 1-1 SV still coming.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.7%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~11.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %31.6%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~29.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.13, 0.97 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
believable since May 2734.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
xERA3.13
3.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.97vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
ERA2.62
2.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.6%
norm31.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
228 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
norm5.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Chase %41.3%
41.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.8%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
871 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.6%→30.8%signal5 K — K% 31.6% (signal) tempered to career ~29.8% → projected 30.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.13signal3.13 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.13 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.08 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.08 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard6 SV, 3.13 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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