
Tanner Scott
Scott is a buy — the skill is earned and getting sharper
His xERA is 3.03, a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His fastball is sitting at 96.9 mph, nearly three ticks above league, and it has been stepping up across the sample — not fading as the season wears on. The contact suppression is real: a .270 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league mark, with a hard-hit rate allowed of 34.6% and barrels at 6.5%, both below league on a sample of 153 batted balls that clears the reliability threshold. He strikes out 32.7% of batters while walking just 6.0%. Nothing here is being held up by luck; the stuff and the results line up, and his expected ERA has been trending down. Buy. A 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with the underlying numbers to match makes him an asset worth adding now.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.0%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~11.6% career norm
- Strikeout %32.7%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~29.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.03, 1.07 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.