week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Michael Petersen
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.36); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 0–2
Petersen is a hold — league-average, limited data to go on.
ROS projects K 23 YTD → 18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.4%—+8.6% ▲vs his ~20.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.36)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
98 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
98 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
xERA3.36
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
163 / 200 TBF
ERA3.07
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.03vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
41 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +8.6% ▲
163 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −1.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.8% norm — expect it to rise.
163 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.234
lg avg .295 ▼−.061vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
163 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
672 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→24.7%signal18 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~20.9% → projected 24.7% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.36noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.36 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.