Michael Petersen
Petersen is a sell-high — his ERA is propped up by luck.
His ERA sits at 3.02, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .267 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 155 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.45, .43 above what the scoreboard shows, and the split has been widening as the sample grows. The strikeout rate is real — 30.1% — but he also walks 10.8%, so the contact he does allow lands in play at a rate he cannot sustain. He is getting outs on batted balls that will start falling. Sell high while the surface line still reads like a front-line arm. The ROS line itself reads 0 K and a 3.45 ERA — sell into that trade window before the deep-league shine wears off.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.1%—+9.3% ▲vs his ~20.9% career norm
- Walk %10.8%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~10.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.45 is 0.43 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.