week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.5%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~20.6% career norm
- Walk %7.6%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.93 +0.83 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
298 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
298 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
xERA4.93
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —
423 / 200 TBF
ERA4.89
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
95.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
423 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
423 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.323
lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
298 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
423 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
1656 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.5%→21.2%signal49 K — K% 21.5% (signal) tempered to career ~20.6% → projected 21.2% over ~55 remaining…
xERA 4.93signal4.64 ERA — xERA 4.93 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop49 K ROS, 4.64 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.