MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Noah Cameron
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Noah Cameron

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.12); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.11WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Cameron is a hold — the skills sit right at league average.

His expected ERA is 4.12, within a hair of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The underlying contact numbers line up with it: his expected wOBA allowed is .312 against a .315 league average, his hard-hit rate allowed is 37.7% against 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 8.2% against 8.0%. Nothing there is out of place. He strikes out 21.2% of batters and walks 7.8%, both within shouting distance of league rate. His swinging-strike rate of 12.5% is a little above league, but his fastball averages 92.5 mph against a league mark of 94.0. There is no big skill edge here and no luck to blame. This call is based on the first reliable sample, since there is no career baseline to compare it to. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.2%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~20.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~7.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
37.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
525 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
525 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
746 / 200 TBF
xERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —
746 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.2%
norm21.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
746 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
746 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
525 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
746 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
746 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
92.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
2893 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.2%→21.1%signal0 K — K% 21.2% (signal) tempered to career ~20.6% → projected 21.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.12signal4.11 ERA — xERA 4.12 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.11 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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